Intel vs. AMD

[Arcadian]

Sharky News just posted this link to HardOCP. http://hardocp.com/articles/intel_stuff/i850peek/mappage.html

It has a version of the Intel road map for next year. I wanted to open up a technical competative discussion based on these findings. Do you think that this is enough to compete with AMD's onslought? In fact, who knows what AMD's roadmap looks like at this point? If anyone has a link to one, please post it. I want to hear people's opinions based on what you think people will buy. Do you think that Intel's plan is agressive enough? Do you think Intel can actually produce what this roadmap shows? Is there any validitiy at all to this roadmap? Let's get the ball rolling on some fun competetive discussions.

[jtshaw]

Here is my 2 cents....

First, Intel will probably not end up following that Road Map, though what they do follow might be close to it. In recent time Intel has definitly been pushing things out the door quicker to try and fend off the attacks from AMD.

At this second I would even say AMD might have the lead in this contest because I believe they have the better price/proformance ratio.

Although many might not agree I think IA-64 vs. X86-64 could be the showdown that decides the victor between AMD and Intel for a little while. I know that most desktop users will not be using IA-64 processors, or even X86-64 stuff, in the near future but eventually that will have to change. Right now I almost think that Intel is destin to win that battle. X86 is old, as said on other threads in this forum, it was never suppose to last as long as it did. If Intel can get enough of the industry behind IA-64 and get software out there x86 could actually become a thing of the past 5 years down the road. This is a little hard to imagine since most popular software runs on x86 these days. If they swing the industry away from X86 then surely AMD would suffer.

Regardless of what actually happens I hope Intel and AMD can remain in a strong competition for as long as possible, because as long as they are at each others throats us consumers will get new, cooler, things at a faster rate. I just hope they don't start putting things out so fast they have stability issues or other problems.

[100%TotallyNude]

Originally posted by 100%TotallyNude:
By the way... anyone ever check out the exellent www.x86.org (http://www.x86.org) site?

[This message has been edited by 100%TotallyNude (edited October 16, 2000).]

[100%TotallyNude]

Can't delete. Oh well.


[This message has been edited by 100%TotallyNude (edited October 16, 2000).]

[Arcadian]

Hmmm... I guess I may have been late with this topic. It seems that nobody wants to discuss this any more http://www.sharkyforums.com/ubb/frown.gif. Oh, well. Lot's of technology coming out, and we'll soon see some good competition, and great performance. http://www.sharkyforums.com/ubb/smile.gif

[JabberJaw]

IMHO, Intel's future roadmap is in somewhat of a quandry due to mis-steps in recent product releases (1.13Ghz recall, Rambus issues, etc.). This is compounded by strong investor sentiment that they should slow down a little and focus on getting it right, instead of letting AMDs' marketing one-upmanship work them into a frenzy of half-baked product releases.

But the main issue (to both companies) is the forecasted major erosion of PC customers for higher-end desktop systems. Sure, there will probably always be a certain market segment looking for multi-thousand dollar game machines. But otherwise, there are just plain no other compelling applications for home (and even most business) users requiring multi-Ghz desktop systems. (You don't really need more than an el-cheapo Celeron to do the household budget, write letters, homework, web browse, etc.)

Further, much of the functionality of home systems continues to be ported to devices like web-enabled cell phones, PDAs, set-top boxes, ultrathin notebooks, etc.

On the brighter side, this opens up great possibilities for software developers to come up with some truly powerful and compelling home apps. Otherwise, we are looking at a rather grim Larry Ellis-onian future of dumb terminals hooked to the web, with someone else dictating the apps we run, charging by the hour, and leaving us to slog through bandwidth issues.

[This message has been edited by JabberJaw (edited October 17, 2000).]

[JabberJaw]

Just wanted to add that, due to the PlayStation2, Xbox, etc, even the market for high-end PC gaming systems is projected to erode substantially over the next few years.

[TekkieJosh]

Damn! They removed what it said! and I wanted to read that... Anybody know of another place where it is listed? Thanks!

TJ

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Duron&TBird Overclocker
-TBird 700@1000
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Visit my Web Page! (http://www.1stclasstech.com)

[Sol]

Originally posted by JabberJaw:
Just wanted to add that, due to the PlayStation2, Xbox, etc, even the market for high-end PC gaming systems is projected to erode substantially over the next few years.

Where are these projections at?

[zombor]

Originally posted by JabberJaw:
Just wanted to add that, due to the PlayStation2, Xbox, etc, even the market for high-end PC gaming systems is projected to erode substantially over the next few years.

console and computer gaming are 2 different feilds, and i think that the margin of loss to the PC will me minimal.


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Compaq Armada E500
650MHz PIII 128MB RAM
8MB ATI rage mobility
11GB hard drive/DVD
dual booting win98/2k

who said you cant game on a notebook????

[Arcadian]

Originally posted by zombor:
console and computer gaming are 2 different feilds, and i think that the margin of loss to the PC will me minimal.


Yes, but don't miss the big picture of what JabberJaw was trying to say. There is an erosion of the PC market, and it is apparent to a lot of people. These people include investors, mostly, as indicitive by the sharp decline of a tech related stocks. It's true that most people don't need more than a Celeron to surf today's internet, so why buy anything more.

What the industry needs is another software revolution to stimulate the PC economy. In the 1980's, Windows brought to the PC the first GUI (although Microsoft was surely not the first to offer a GUI, it was the first to be brought to the IBM PC). In the 1990's, Windows 95 brought the user friendly environment to the PC, and the Internet became successful. Those two things caused demand for faster hardware to explode, just like the first Windows systems (version 3.1 to be exact) caused huge demand for 386 enhansed 32bit mode processors. Now, in this decade, there needs to be another reason to want faster hardware besides for video games.

I see emerging uses for 3D, as well as streaming media, being key influences in the coming years. Regarding streaming media, Tom's Hardware has shown that even GHz processors have a CPU utilization when trying to decode Mpeg4, which will surely become an Internet standard for streaming video. However, before streaming video becomes popular, people have to be able to access faster Internet bandwidths. Many US cities are being upgraded to offer DSL and Cable high speed access, but hopefully it will soon be enough for web sites to feel confident enough to start showcasing streaming media on their sites.

In terms of 3D, I predict that this will become an integral feature both on the Internet, and on the desktop, which I also believe will become one entity. Computing horse power today is simply not fast enough to enable completely 3D environments, and Internet connections are barely fast enough to stream that kind of data. However, I am confident that if this kind of software progress does not happen, there will be a sharp decline in PC sales.

This is why Intel is trying more emerging markets, like netorking and communications. If the microprocessor market falls, then they need to fall back on something. This is also something that is no doubt scaring the living daylight out of AMD. With their company primarily receiving revenue from microprocessor sales, they would be hurt a lot of microprocessor demand fell. That's obviously why they are trying to enter the server market with their 760MP boards, and eventually their K8 processor. The server market stands to survive the fall of consumer demand, and AMD as well as Intel will need to rely on the fact that businesses will ALWAYS need faster servers.

These are my opinions for now. We stand to enter a scary future, and who knows what will happen....

[nerf]

Gee, i guess those would be profound statements if the whole universe of end users resided in the US. NOT! the US has 1/24 of the worlds population and only a small fraction of these people even know what a computer looks like. the www, laugh! just wait emerging countries will by pass 2 or 3 generations of technology and go wireless at the start because they have no infrastructure. everyone knows A.G. Bell set us back 20 yrs with the analog phone line. these other countries will profit from our mistakes. the world is a big place and tech stops for no one. everytime someone predicts that CPUs' cannot sustain their incredible pace it goes even faster. when hardware co's produce faster hardware, software engineers develop the goods to put it to use. the market you say, dont mix apples with oranges. the market is not concerned with anything but profits. doesnt matter if its computer chips or cow chips. if you use the market as an indicator of where any market is going you'll loose. all of their tools will tell you where a company has been, not where it is going. if you think you know the future, invest, predict interest rate or better yet, the weather. i do know this your as lost as the rest of us.
Nerf

[MayDay]

IMHO price/performance is everything. With all else being equal, the difference between AMD/Intel (at this snapshot in time) is not worth the price difference (to me). I have no vested interest in either company so I simply shop price.

In addition, I believe that the current valuations of the two companies reflect the weakness of investors to make sound, long term investments and nothing more. AMD and Intel each have their merits and weaknesses.

It does appear (to me) that the "top end" PC market is waning. Why spend top dollar for a product that will be superceded in a year or less? Evaluate your needs, pick your price point and jump in!

[Arcadian]

Originally posted by nerf:
Gee, i guess those would be profound statements if the whole universe of end users resided in the US. NOT! the US has 1/24 of the worlds population and only a small fraction of these people even know what a computer looks like. the www, laugh! just wait emerging countries will by pass 2 or 3 generations of technology and go wireless at the start because they have no infrastructure. everyone knows A.G. Bell set us back 20 yrs with the analog phone line. these other countries will profit from our mistakes. the world is a big place and tech stops for no one. everytime someone predicts that CPUs' cannot sustain their incredible pace it goes even faster. when hardware co's produce faster hardware, software engineers develop the goods to put it to use. the market you say, dont mix apples with oranges. the market is not concerned with anything but profits. doesnt matter if its computer chips or cow chips. if you use the market as an indicator of where any market is going you'll loose. all of their tools will tell you where a company has been, not where it is going. if you think you know the future, invest, predict interest rate or better yet, the weather. i do know this your as lost as the rest of us.
Nerf

Nerf, you may not realize it, but you happen to be agreeing with everything I was just saying. With the growing economies in other nations, you are liable to see other areas of development besides PCs. You bring up a good example of wireless technologies being dominate over the old style PC connection. Why bother with a PC with superfast processors, if all you need is a cell phone that connects to the Internet?

The fact is the continent of Asia is poised to easily surpass the US in the next 50 years, if they continue on their current technological growth path. You nailed it when you said that these emerging superpowers will be able to bypass 2 or 3 generations of old technology. Given how popular cell phones are in Asia, I can see them becoming a dominate Internet connection for these countries. This could easily hurt PC sales, since demand will shift to new paradigms.

If there isn't a way to increase the need for a fast home PC, which includes the kind of advances I described in my previous post, you will soon see the demise of the home PC. I may not be able to predict the future, but if there is one thing that's constant in this world, it's change. Therefore, I can at least guarentee you that if there isn't a reason to use the extra horse power of computers these days, then people won't buy it. Instead, they will favor lower cost solutions like Internet cell phones, and companies like Intel will have to start concentrating on their Internet markets, as micrprocessors will become comodity items.