Increasing iPad functionality will eventually eat into Mac sales. Apple can't make the iPad powerful enough to do things a normal computer will do, but they have to iterate to make people keep buying the newer model. I'm interested to see how they go about doing that.
If you look at the technology and form factor of the MacBook Air and the new iPad, you might be lead to believe that in terms of computational power they actually merge in perhaps as little as 2-3 years time. You end up with a tablet that can run Final Cut Pro X on an external display via Thunderbolt, or possibly even wirelessly via AirPlay or some iteration thereof. Launchpad even looks like an iOS launcher for the Mac.
I suspect that Mac OS X and iOS merge at some point, possibly not too far out. It may be a lot sooner than anyone expects. There could even be an iOS 7 / OS X 11 announcement a year from now.
If you look at the technology and form factor of the MacBook Air and the new iPad, you might be lead to believe that in terms of computational power they actually merge in perhaps as little as 2-3 years time. You end up with a tablet that can run Final Cut Pro X on an external display via Thunderbolt, or possibly even wirelessly via AirPlay or some iteration thereof. Launchpad even looks like an iOS launcher for the Mac.
I suspect that Mac OS X and iOS merge at some point, possibly not too far out. It may be a lot sooner than anyone expects. There could even be an iOS 7 / OS X 11 announcement a year from now.
My expectations has always been that apple tablets and notebooks will eventually be merged into an offering simliar to the Asus Transformer Prime.
Basically a high powered tablet with an optimal keyboard docking station for additional life and features.
If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
Yeah I was thinkin that mabey it was just used and abused to the max by all the 8 year olds that treat everything like a plastic toy haha. It was the display so go figure.
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My expectations has always been that apple tablets and notebooks will eventually be merged into an offering simliar to the Asus Transformer Prime.
Basically a high powered tablet with an optimal keyboard docking station for additional life and features.
That's the problem though. Right now you have two separate markets, so there is a lot of overlap of people buying one of each. The problem with merging the markets is that you take two product lines and condense them to one which eliminates the people that bought both. They have to off-set this by expanding their laptop market (because the tablet market is essentially dead once the iPad becomes a MacBook transformer.) However, I don't see this additional functionality wooing the traditional PC based market over. If anything, an alternative will be offered using Windows 8.
In the end, the market goes back to looking like the laptop market before the introduction of the tablet. Now, however, the screens of the laptops come off.
This is simplified of course, but interesting none-the-less.
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I don't thing this consolitdation is happening from Apple, at least not in the near future. They made a very clear sign when they chose their tablet to run their phone operating system instead of their computer operating system. I think if they consolidated the OSs, the outcome would be something that has the disadvantages of both, rather than the strengths of both.
Instead, I think a few years from now iOS will be Apple's consumer OS, and OSX will be their pro OS, which is I think what Steve Jobs was hinting at with the truck analogy at the D conference interview with Bill Gates and Walt Mossberg.
On a different note, can we talk about how atrocious the iPad facebook app is? It's not a big deal because the regular web site works just fine, but it's still the second most shameful iPad app ever after the GMail one that was pulled from the App Store a few hours after its release.
I don't thing this consolitdation is happening from Apple, at least not in the near future. They made a very clear sign when they chose their tablet to run their phone operating system instead of their computer operating system. I think if they consolidated the OSs, the outcome would be something that has the disadvantages of both, rather than the strengths of both.
Instead, I think a few years from now iOS will be Apple's consumer OS, and OSX will be their pro OS, which is I think what Steve Jobs was hinting at with the truck analogy at the D conference interview with Bill Gates and Walt Mossberg.
On a different note, can we talk about how atrocious the iPad facebook app is? It's not a big deal because the regular web site works just fine, but it's still the second most shameful iPad app ever after the GMail one that was pulled from the App Store a few hours after its release.
I duhno. A number of changes to OS X make me think that it will run on a tablet. Launchpad makes no sense with a mouse. Messages, Reminders, and Notes are all designed for simple touch input. Even Mail.app is designed to work with touch input.
I actually don't see tablets replacing laptops any time soon. I see tablets developing more laptop type features (like a keyboard docking station) but I agree with Jobs that you'll see 2 distinct requirements. Daily vs heavy use and a OS offering to go with each.
IMHO, in a few more iterations (1 or 3) the iPad will be robust enough to handle the daily needs for most standard users. Power users will of course need something more powerful.
If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
I actually don't see tablets replacing laptops any time soon. I see tablets developing more laptop type features (like a keyboard docking station) but I agree with Jobs that you'll see 2 distinct requirements. Daily vs heavy use and a OS offering to go with each.
IMHO, in a few more iterations (1 or 3) the iPad will be robust enough to handle the daily needs for most standard users. Power users will of course need something more powerful.
It's pretty close in form factor to a MacBook Air. The 13" MBA with the i7 even runs FCPX pretty well, despite the 4GB memory limit which holds it back. With 8GB it would compete directly with the MBP, and that's completely possible (not even sure why it isn't an option). The new iPad, in some ways, is actually more powerful than my Core 2 Duo 2010 MBP.
It feels to me like they are porting all of iOS over to OS X. Once that's complete it just seems to make sense that they'll move to a single OS.
Look at the new dev preview. They are adding all these iOS app that are honestly a little awkward to use with a trackpad or mouse.
I think that's more of a halo thing, they're trying to make people who like iOS have an easier time getting started with OSX (which is already quite intuitive for a desktop OS, but that's setting the bar REALLY REALLY low). Notifications.app came about because Growl is a piece of crap and Apple needed a better implementation for their own apps.
Messages honestly looks like a bad beta, not even like something from iOS, just awful period. I hope they do something about the way it looks by the time Mountain Lion ships. Then again FaceTime on Mac has been equally terrible so I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed this way.
Regarding MBA specs, I would be surprised if the next one didn't come with options for 8GB RAM and 512GB SSD. Of course they could wait for the one after, but the upcoming low voltage processor bumps are really unspectacular so this would be a good way to entice customers. I don't think they'll ship an MBA with a redesigned body for at least another 2 years, there's just no reason to. Just like the iPad has pretty much figured out the perfect tablet form factor, the MBA is so close to the perfect laptop form factor that there's not much they can do I think. Maybe make it a bit sturdier.
edit: regarding Messages, the basic layout -- one window, contacts in the left pane, active chat in the right -- is exactly what it should be. The simplicity of that layout makes something like Adium look silly in comparison. It's just that the implementation of it is so poor right now that I can't believe they actually shipped it to consumers at large, even as a beta. It's just as bad as Microsoft not including any tooltips in the Win8 beta for how to get from Classic to Metro, for example. Sure it's not meant for "average users" yet but that doesn't mean devs should get away with showing off a terrible product.
Last edited by Steven P Jobs; 04-04-2012 at 05:31 PM.
another thing that really bothers me about iOS right now is how inconsistent "traditional" OSX keyboard shortcuts are. for example you can switch between the address bar and the google search box in safari using tab/ctrl+tab but when you start typing you can't browse suggestions with the arrow keys. i know this is just old behaviour that really doesn't make too much sense on a touch-based OS, but don't dangle that carrot in front of users' faces - either give them all the old shortcuts, or none.
I think that tablets will replace laptops in a few years. They will be like the ASUS Transformer with a keyboard dock available. What will happen is that the tablet will become 13" have more CPU, RAM and HDD power. The touch functionality of the tablet will become integral to future business.
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