The Official NFL Thread

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Originally Posted by Spank_Me_Hard

Good thus far... and since the last playoffs.

But I'm still not convinced. Just as with the Dallas/NE game... I think that NE still has a much more balanced team than Indy.

I'd speculate that their pass D is so good because they get up so quickly against other teams and their D knows that the other team has to pass to catch up. Playing D gets a whole lot easier when you can basically ignore the run.

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I always thought the other way around...your run D will look great when you have a lead all the time because the other team does not run. But your passing D, even if its pretty good, will take a bit of a hit because the other team will throw almost every down because they need to catch up. The passing stats will be inflated due to the sheer number of pass attempts.
I think the reason there D looks better is just because it is. They are much faster this year, and speed is the most important attibute in the Tampa 2 defense that they use. That plus Bob Sanders is an absolute beast, he makes so many plays its just sick. For a safety to make that big a difference in run defense is amazing. He may be the best in the entire league at reading a play and reacting to it.

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Originally Posted by Soul Assassin

good point, kinda like the raiders last year... they had the best pass defense cause everyone just ran on them, didnt have to pass lol.

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The raiders pass defense was good because teams did not fear them scoring any points and where pretty much always leading. So they where in run the clock out mode for a large portion of the game.

I didn't know that about the Raiders, thats funny. You always heard how good their pass defense is, now the truth comes out.

To help me find everyone's picks please quote like this:

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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Remember you are picking with the spreads! Please post them in the same order as the list.

Favorite ______________ Spread ______________ Underdog
Cleveland _________________ -3 ___________________ At St. Louis
At Chicago ________________ -5 ___________________ Detroit
Indianapolis _______________ -7 ___________________ At Carolina
NY Giants________________ -9.5 ___________________ Miami At London
At Tennessee ____________ -7.5 ___________________ Oakland
Philadelphia _______________ -1 ___________________ At Minnesota
Pittsburgh _______________ -3.5 __________________ At Cincinnati
At NY Jets _______________ -3 ____________________ Buffalo
At San Diego _____________ -9.5 __________________ Houston
At Tampa Bay _____________ -4 ___________________ Jacksonville
New Orleans ______________ -3 ___________________ At San Francisco
At New England __________ -16.5 _________________ Washington

At Denver ________________ -3 ___________________ Green Bay

Its all for fun, but lets just say no picks after Sunday at 1:00 eastern - no new posts and no post edits.


Final Results From Week 7
spamjedi ______________ 8/14 ___ 57.1%
Spank_Me_Hard ________ 8/14 ___ 57.1%
MrDigital ______________ 9/14 ___ 64.3%
rabidmoose171 ________ 12/14 ___ 85.7%
r'aggro ______________ 11/14 ___ 78.6%
fastitocalon ___________ 9/14 ___ 64.3%

Check this out

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glCRe7cSqhw

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Originally Posted by md1198p

I always thought the other way around...your run D will look great when you have a lead all the time because the other team does not run.

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This is generally accepted as true.

::edit::
Of course, checking the passing D stats, the top 5 teams are Indianapolis, Denver, Pittsburgh, New England, and Tampa Bay, so it looks like the top teams are all winners.

dude I don't get the spread! we are picking if the score will be under or over the spread? not who wins, so do we just say yes, no, no, yes yes yes etc? like pittsburgh at cincy = yes ?

CLEVELAND will win by more than 3

DETROIT will win by less than 5, so this means they lose because it's not 5 or more right?

INDIANAPOLIS will win by more than 7

NY GIANTS will win by more than 9.5

TENNESSEE will NOT win by more than 7.5

PHILLY will win by more than 1

PITTSBURGH will win by more than 3.5

NY JETS will win by more than 3

SAN DIEGO will NOT win by more than 9.5

JACKSONVILLE will NOT win by more than 4

NEW ORLEANS will NOT win by more than 3

NEW ORLEANS will win by more than 16.5

GREEN BAY will win by more than 3


I dont know, is that what you mean lol?

Take the first teams points, minus the points in the middle. If they still beat the other team without those points, then they cover the spread. It's not rocket science.

Im having a hard time picking cleveland over st louis, and jets over buffalo. So I'll get my picks in later

it is to me, i'm a math moron... literally.

so whatever points you think INDY will score, minus 7 and if the result is 7 or higher than 7 then they beat the spread right?

I dont know, whatever, I stick with those picks...

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Originally Posted by Soul Assassin

it is to me, i'm a math moron... literally.

so whatever points you think INDY will score, minus 7 and if the result is 7 or higher than 7 then they beat the spread right?

I dont know, whatever, I stick with those picks...

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ok just do me a favor. List the teams you are picking

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DETROIT will win by less than 5...

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so in this case just put Chicago. I'm not going to clean up or format anyone's picks, it takes enough time to put this together as it is.

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Originally Posted by md1198p

I always thought the other way around...your run D will look great when you have a lead all the time because the other team does not run.

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This is only true when the lead is so great, or it is so late in the game that the other team HAS to basically abandon the run.

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But your passing D, even if its pretty good, will take a bit of a hit because the other team will throw almost every down because they need to catch up.

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I understand the thought process. But I think the much bigger factor is the disadvantage of having to throw and the other team KNOWS it. This is HUGE.

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The passing stats will be inflated due to the sheer number of pass attempts.

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I don't think so. There will be more sacks (D line can basically just rush the passer every down), and more interceptions (safeties no longer have to honour the run, and can just sit back). Total passing yards goes up... but I think that percentages, TD/INT ratio, and sacks (and turnovers from sacks) suffer.

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I think the reason there D looks better is just because it is. They are much faster this year, and speed is the most important attibute in the Tampa 2 defense that they use.

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I don't see how they're so much "faster". They basically have the same personel... minus a few guys like Cato June.

Until I see them in a tight game... I give their D no credit at all. They've had the luxury all season of basically being able to play othwer teams in one dimension (limiting them to passing games).

NE has all the firepower in the world to keep up with Indy this time. And NE's D has been historically good... especially at confusing Peyton. My money is on the Pats undressing the Colts.

I'll get my picks in this week that include the spread. The football season is now in full swing. We are no longer hearing about vick, steriods, owens, or moss. Aging QB's are invogue. But Green has probably played his last down. Kimmel was the best part of MNF in a long time. Good Times!!!!

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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St. Louis
Chicago
Indianapolis
New York Giants
Oakland
Philadelphia
Cinncinati
Buffalo
San Diego
Tampa Bay
New Orleans
Washington
Denver

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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Cleveland
Detroit
Indy
NY
Tennessee
Minnesota
Pittsburgh
Buffalo
Houston
Tampa Bay
San Francisco
New England
Green Bay

I am not confident in these picks at all, for some reason. Wouldn't be surprised if I miss a ton.

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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St. Louis
Detroit
Carolina
NY Giants
Tennessee
Minnesota
Pittsburg
NY Jets
San Diego
Jacksonville
San Francisco
Washington
Green Bay

I took the underdog in quite a few, but I'm just not sure about the spreads.

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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Cleveland
Detroit
Indianapolis
NY Giants
Tennessee
Minnesota
Cincinnati
Buffalo
Houston
Tampa Bay
New Orleans
Washington
Denver

I dont like this week at all. I'm actually picking against NE! Oh well I'm in last place anyway ;)

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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St. Louis
Detroit
Indianapolis
Giants
Tennessee
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Jets
San Diego
Jacksonville
New Orleans
New England
Green Bay


:eek:

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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dont know that color, so oh well lol.

CLEVELAND
DETROIT
INDIANAPOLIS
NEW YORK GIANTS
TENNESSEE
PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH
BUFFALO
SAN DIEGO
TAMPA BAY
SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND
GREEN BAY

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Originally Posted by spamjedi
Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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Cleveland
Detroit
Indianapolis
NY Giants
Oakland
Minnesota
Cincinnati
Buffalo
San Diego
Tampa Bay
San Francisco
Washington
Denver

I'm just going to keep on picking Detroit.

I'm a little late but.........

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Originally Posted by fastitocalon

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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Cleveland
Detroit
Indianapolis
NY Giants
Tennessee
Minnesota
Pittsburgh
NY Jets
San Diego
Jacksonville
New Orleans
New England

Green Bay

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This is only true when the lead is so great, or it is so late in the game that the other team HAS to basically abandon the run.



I understand the thought process. But I think the much bigger factor is the disadvantage of having to throw and the other team KNOWS it. This is HUGE.


I don't think so. There will be more sacks (D line can basically just rush the passer every down), and more interceptions (safeties no longer have to honour the run, and can just sit back). Total passing yards goes up... but I think that percentages, TD/INT ratio, and sacks (and turnovers from sacks) suffer..

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But when passing offenses and pass defenses are "ranked" they only go by yards, not effiency. I agree it will not be effective if you throw a ton and the other team knows it, but you will rack up yards, thereby ranking high in "passing".

I agree about all the sacks and stuff. As a matter of fact, I used this exact arguement in defending Mcnabb, and you disagreed that the pass rush would be more effective if the other teams passes a lot and the defense expects it. I will look later, and copy and paste the relevant passages.

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I don't see how they're so much "faster". They basically have the same personel... minus a few guys like Cato June.

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They have 4 new starters on defense, 2 new corners. In the base Tampa 2 the corners hae a very big responsability in run defense in keeping contain and turning all runs into the middle or making tackles on the outside. More that any other sceme IMO, corners in the Cover 2 need to be good run defenders.

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Until I see them in a tight game... I give their D no credit at all. They've had the luxury all season of basically being able to play othwer teams in one dimension (limiting them to passing games).

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One could say the same thing about new England. They have led practically every minute of the season. They are just as untested. More I think. Indy just easily beat a team that historically has given the a lot of problems.

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Sharky Pick 'em For Week 8

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St. Louis
Detroit
Carolina
Miami
Oakland
Minnesota
Pittsburgh
Buffalo
San Diego
Jacksonville
New Orleans
New England
Green Bay

Me picking my Raiders to win is horrible luck, I'm sure that alone will cause them to lose by 30 lol.

Indy has played against teams that actually have a collective winning record, while the patriots have played against teams with a dismal sub .500 record, I think its something like 17-21 overall.