The Official NFL Thread

CU v. CSU today. O God denver is going to be a massive mess tonight.

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Originally Posted by r'aggro

...and is way overexposed by the media.

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That I can agree with.

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Originally Posted by gkline

Many writers are picking Indy to go all the way. I'm not convinced. You lose E James and Vanderjack the same year. HMMM. Steelers lose Bettis who was at the end of his career and Kimo that was at the end of his. I'm not sold on Peyton Manning either. Something tells me always the bridesmaid never the bride.

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I agree with you there. They lost too much. AFC will come down to SD, Pitt, Cincin. Maybe NE if they stay healthy.

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Originally Posted by monroeski

The thing is, though, that you can't realistically bring the whole game down to one play. Yes, that guy that recovered the fumble was a moron for cutting back to where Roethlisberger could tackle him. However, to present just one example of another game changing play, if the refs hadn't screwed up on Polamalu's interception, even AFTER the review, the game wouldn't have even been in the same situation as it was when Bettis fumbled.

There are a thousand points of chance that can go either way, and somehow the majority of them broke just right for the Steelers last year.

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I dont see why you cant bring the game down to one play when in fact it did came down to one play. Like I explained in the other post. What happened the first 3 and 9/10 quarters does not matter. You got to put the past behind you. Coaches say this, players say this. It comes down to the last big play. Sure the refs would have changed the outcome of the game if they changed the call, but you are going on probability more than fact. It is a fact that Berger was the last man back and he did make the game saving tackle. I dont know how you guys not see this.

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Originally Posted by proxemo666

I dont see why you cant bring the game down to one play when in fact it did came down to one play. Like I explained in the other post. What happened the first 3 and 9/10 quarters does not matter. You got to put the past behind you. Coaches say this, players say this. It comes down to the last big play. Sure the refs would have changed the outcome of the game if they changed the call, but you are going on probability more than fact. It is a fact that Berger was the last man back and he did make the game saving tackle. I dont know how you guys not see this.

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True, he did make a game saving tackle. However, if they had given Polamalu the interception he made with 5 minutes left rather than call it incomplete, Indy would not have continued that drive and scored a touchdown. That TD (plus the two point conversion) made the score 21-18. With the pick, maybe the Steelers would have scored again instead, and made the score 28-10. They would probably have at least gotten a field goal, as the interception was made at midfield so they had great field position. The entire rest of the game would have changed. The play calling would have been different. I wasn't trying to argue and say that the play wasn't big, I'm just saying that the entire game can't be condensed into one play.

Going back to the other post -

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Originally Posted by proxemo666

My point is that if Berger did not make that tackle, THE STEELERS WOULD HAVE NOT EVEN BEEN IN THE SUPERBOWL. Plain and simple.

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You tell us not to use probabilities, but you are using your own assumptions right here. You can't say that the Steelers wouldn't have scored again if Harper had taken the pick the distance. You can't really even say with absolute certainty that Harper would have scored; maybe he would have had a random fumble like that guy from Georgia last weekend. He was tackled on the 42; that means there was still about 60 yards of field to go during which something else could have happened. Harper had a cut on his knee from a knife just from the day before; that could have slowed him enough that someone else could have caught him.

Heck, after Roethlisberger's tackle, the Colts still had a 5 play drive, with two completions, two incompletions, and a missed field goal. I don't recall the exact plays, but maybe a Steelers DB batted down one of those passes that may have scored a TD and put Indy up with even less time left for the Steelers to score. Maybe an Indy OL had a great block that prevented a sack on one of those completions. The point is, a lot of things happened after the tackle that could have changed the outcome. You can't say that without the tackle the Steelers would not have won. Their chances would have taken a huge hit, true, but you can't say anything with total certainty.

It was only a "game saving" tackle because the colts failed to score on their drive. By your own rationale, the first 3 and 19/20ths of the game, including Ben's tackle, don't matter if Indy had scored a TD on their last drive. Then it would have gone from "game saving" to a "valiant but futile effort" (or whatever the media would choose to call it :D).

Even with probabilities aside, you say it comes down to the last big play; are you saying that the Vanderjagt shank wasn't a big play?

The fun thing about being a football fan is we all are always right! :D ;)

I know this is an NFL thread, so this is kind of OT, but I am a big Texas Tech fan, and the game against UTEP tonight just about gave me a heart attack. Shouldn't have been remotely that close, but hey, a W is a W.

Being from Tampa, living here, and around here my entire live. The Bucs were a laughing stock until Tony Dungy showed up. And we've managed to make the playoffs multple times. And we won a super bowl, something my grandfather who died the year they won, would tell me they never would achieve. But that was the year without Dungy.

I wan't Dungy and the Colts to get the superbowl, almost as much as I wan't my Bucs to win another Super Bowl. Dungy is a great coach, and I think more than any other coach in the NFL he deserves a Super Bowl RING!

I love Coach Dungy, and the community around here loves him to.

Tony Dungy was a solid player for the Steelers. Always liked him.

Finally, the real opening day!! Good luck everyone, and have fun watching my team smash everything in it's path. First stop: Detroit, the scene of the crime! ;)

I wish they carried the Ravens games on TV here. They're steamrolling Tampa Bay, apparently.

lol, this might be the worst game Shaun Alexander has played. Seattle and Detroit's offenses both look awful, but both defenses are having great games.

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Originally Posted by monroeski

I wish they carried the Ravens games on TV here. They're steamrolling Tampa Bay, apparently.

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Don't even get me started... distgustingly bad the Bucs are playing. I just turned the game off.

I just want to forget about it.

Broncs beat by field goals and Plummer. So much for an improved offense. I think we should trade Plummer for a REAL RB.

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Originally Posted by Snakespy

Broncs beat by field goals and Plummer. So much for an improved offense. I think we should trade Plummer for a REAL RB.

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Yeah, I was hoping they would take care of St. L actually.

The Texans showed some promise in the begining.... then the sacks started happening. I had hope that the Texans would actually pull it off. Carr looked pretty good when he wasn't on the ground. McNabb was great and they couldn't stop Westbrook.

My giants had a good showing against the colts though i'm disappointed that they lost. Can't the NFL get some decent refs, i can't believe that flag on tim carter in the 4th quarter. And the giants are so frustrating with the penalties, especially the false starts..... Eli's accuracy was shaky on a couple plays, but overall he did well m,aking some nice ones. I also hate when shockey doesn't get passes early, he's nuts i love when he gets fired up. And damn, i can't believe all of the pick opportunities, there were like 3 that they missed.

NYG ought to be good for a long time; particularly with a healthy LB corps.

But I can't even believe how tough the NFC-East is this year. Philly looked great today and DC/ Dallas could easily be a playoff team. I don't think we saw the real Dallas in J-ville today either.

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Originally Posted by monroeski

True, he did make a game saving tackle.

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All I needed to hear

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Originally Posted by monroeski

You tell us not to use probabilities, but you are using your own assumptions right here. You can't say that the Steelers wouldn't have scored again if Harper had taken the pick the distance. You can't really even say with absolute certainty that Harper would have scored; maybe he would have had a random fumble like that guy from Georgia last weekend. He was tackled on the 42; that means there was still about 60 yards of field to go during which something else could have happened. Harper had a cut on his knee from a knife just from the day before; that could have slowed him enough that someone else could have caught him.

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Wow. Besides these guys being professional football players, that circumstance is so highly unlikely, it is pretty damn funny. You can't compare apples and oranges here. You cant compare some kid right out of high school who apparently cant walk and chew gum at the sametime to a seasoned NFL player. That cut on his knee did not appear to bother him the first 3 and 9/10 quarters.

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Originally Posted by monroeski

Heck, after Roethlisberger's tackle, the Colts still had a 5 play drive, with two completions, two incompletions, and a missed field goal. I don't recall the exact plays, but maybe a Steelers DB batted down one of those passes that may have scored a TD and put Indy up with even less time left for the Steelers to score. Maybe an Indy OL had a great block that prevented a sack on one of those completions. The point is, a lot of things happened after the tackle that could have changed the outcome. You can't say that without the tackle the Steelers would not have won. Their chances would have taken a huge hit, true, but you can't say anything with total certainty.

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This is a moot point because no drive would be needed. Berger made the "game saving tackle" that would have put them down by 4 points, which again is exactly my point.

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Originally Posted by monroeski

It was only a "game saving" tackle because the colts failed to score on their drive. By your own rationale, the first 3 and 19/20ths of the game, including Ben's tackle, don't matter if Indy had scored a TD on their last drive. Then it would have gone from "game saving" to a "valiant but futile effort" (or whatever the media would choose to call it :D).

Even with probabilities aside, you say it comes down to the last big play; are you saying that the Vanderjagt shank wasn't a big play?

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It was a game saving tackle because on that particular play, the colts had a high chance of scoring (running the INT back) but Berger prevented them. He saved the game hence the term. What happened before and after is irrelevant. This term only applies to what berger did. My rationale is that the first 3 and 39/40ths of the game upto but not including the play that Berger tackled the fumbler does not matter. Thus the almost interception, any penalties, incomplete passes, fumbles, etc., for BOTH teams do not matter upto but not including the jerome bettis fumble. I was only talking about that particular play. Indy's drive following bergers tackle has nothing to do with my probabilities/assumptions.

Vanders kick though a big play was not as big as bergers tackle. Indy would have been up assumming lightening did not come down and strike the player while he was running towards the endzone or a stadium lightbulb fall and hit him on the head ;)

Yea a few surprises: Seattle had a tough time w/ Detroit; SF put up more of a fight then I thought they would against a mediocre AZ team; and TB getting thumped. I personally think the Giants are over-rated (yea I know there are NY fans here) but Burgess is making Eli look good. Manning just chucks the rock in his direction and Burgess comes up w/ it. They are pretty decent team at best. No surprises w/ T.O. Looking forward to the SD/Oak game tomorrow night.

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Originally Posted by Boneycat

Yea a few surprises: Seattle had a tough time w/ Detroit;

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Yea, our defensive line was dominating yesterday. If our offense could have done anything we could have won. But Im happy with the direction we heading.

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Originally Posted by proxemo666

Indy's drive following bergers tackle has nothing to do with my probabilities/assumptions.

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So in other words, you are admitting to using your own probabilities and assumptions while telling me I can't base my own analysis on probabilities.

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Originally Posted by proxemo666

Sure the refs would have changed the outcome of the game if they changed the call, but you are going on probability more than fact. It is a fact that Berger was the last man back and he did make the game saving tackle.

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It is a fact that the game would not have ended like it had if Vanderjagt had made that kick. It is a fact that it would have been different if they gave Polamalu the interception. It is a fact that the game would have ended differently had Brackett not forced Bettis to fumble in the first place. I'm not using "ended differently" here meaning that the Colts would have won, necessarily, I'm just saying that the way everything played out would have changed.

In a close game, you can't say for sure if one play truly changed the winner unless that play happened to be the last one of the game. If Harper had scored, there was still plenty of time for the Steelers to mount a game winning drive, too.

Had the Colts won, it would have been Brackett with the game saving play, since he knocked the ball out of Bettis' hands when the Steelers were pretty much assured of at least getting some points. The only reason Ben is the hero and Brackett's forced fumble is forgotten is because the Steelers won. The Colt's failed drive and Vanderjagt's failed kick determined which player got the glory, and all of that happened AFTER Ben's tackle.

I think I would go as far as to say that Ben didn't make a game saving play, necessarily, but that Harper made a game losing play by cutting back in rather than heading to the sideline. Of course, that would be assuming that the Steelers didn't score afterwards and win, though. :D

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Originally Posted by spamjedi

Yea, our defensive line was dominating yesterday. If our offense could have done anything we could have won. But Im happy with the direction we heading.

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Our o-line was garbage yesterday, it's been years since they had a game that bad. I noticed Tom Ashworth got yanked after his first play, useless piece of crap.

But, we usually lose road openers every time so it's no big deal. I'll take the ugly, undeserved win.

Writer for the Boston Globe is reporting that Deion Branch has been traded to the Seahawks for a first rounder.

http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal.../reiss_pieces/

Confirmed! :eek:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2583149

Glad it was only one first, two would have been rapeage. i'm sure it will be a late first round pick. ;)

Not really NFL related, but how about them Buckeyes! :D :D

(Sorry, just can't follow the pros much anymore).