When I say "browser" I'm not talking about just Google Apps. I'm not talking exclusively about web apps, or even the Internet.

At the enterprise level, a large number of applications that just 5 years ago used to only exist as custom executables are now just shells rendering HTML and Javascript. They have an API that partners can integrate with. It does everything the old software did, only much faster and the speed of the client no longer matters. They may be talking to a local server, they may be talking to the internet, they may be connecting to a private virtualized infrastructure. You had these classical software companies, which made CRM and ERP software for Windows and they've been forced (arguably for the better) to move to web-based, or perhaps a better word is "web influenced" software and infrastructure. The old model is dying. Fast.

Not every piece or type of software has successfully made that transition, but Quickbooks and Intuit are a great example of a company that knows the old model is approaching EOL rapidly. 10 years ago TurboTax was a desktop app you had to install. Today most of their business comes from the web version. Quickbooks itself faces immense pressure from startups like Xero, and even Mint (on the personal side) wich they bought. And while they still sell the boxed version, a quick glance at their website shows you that's not a priority anymore. Sales of the boxed version are likely declining year over year.

10-15 years? More like 2-3. 15 years ago we were on Windows 98. 15 years from now, I can't say. But today you've got companies like Saleforce and Jive really changing software models. Look at Office365. Have you ever heard someone who wasn't in IT say, "Man, I really love our email server. It's always so reliable." No, all people do is complain about how much an pain in the *** it is to manage an Exchange server. Now Microsoft is saying, hey, we'll do it for you.